Does Right-Wing Terrorism Increase Support for Populist Parties in Germany?

This study investigates whether right-wing terrorism increases support for populist parties in Germany. Using data from German municipalities, the authors exploit quasi-random variation between successful and failed terror attacks to identify causal effects. They analyze election results from 2013-2021 and individual survey data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP). Findings reveal that successful attacks lead to a 4.5 percentage point increase in AfD vote share in state elections, a 25% rise relative to the sample mean. Terror also boosts voter turnout by 14 percentage points, with the AfD capturing 35% of mobilized voters. Neighboring municipalities experience spillover effects.

Full Citation and Link to Article

Sabet, N., Liebald, M., & Friebel, G. (2024). Terrorism and Voting: The Rise of Right-Wing Populism in Germany. Goethe University Frankfurt. https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/pol.20230615&&from=f

Extended Summary

Central Research Question

This study examines the impact of right-wing terrorism on electoral outcomes in Germany, specifically whether successful terrorist attacks increase support for the right-wing populist party Alternative für Deutschland (AfD). While previous research has explored economic and cultural factors contributing to the rise of populism, this paper focuses on political conflict—particularly the role of terrorism in shifting voter preferences. The authors ask whether acts of terror lead to increased support for far-right parties by mobilizing voters, altering political attitudes, and influencing campaign rhetoric.

Previous Literature

The rise of populism has been studied extensively, with scholars highlighting economic distress, globalization, migration shocks, and cultural backlash as key factors. Research by Norris and Inglehart (2019) argues that those who feel "left behind" by globalization may react defensively to external shocks, including terrorism, by adopting more authoritarian political positions. Other studies have investigated the electoral consequences of terrorism, with mixed findings. Some research suggests that terrorist attacks increase support for right-wing parties, while others indicate a backlash against incumbent governments. However, most of these studies focus on non-Western democracies or cross-country analyses, making this paper one of the few to examine the specific effect of terrorism on right-wing populism in an advanced multi-party democracy.

Data

The authors use several sources of data. Terrorism incidents are drawn from the Global Terror Database (GTD), which records details on all attacks in Germany between 2010 and 2020, including whether they were successful or failed. Electoral data come from the Federal Returning Officer and the German Federal Government’s Regional Data Bank, covering Federal, European, and state elections from 2013 to 2021. The study also incorporates individual-level survey data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP), a longitudinal dataset tracking political preferences before and after attacks. Additionally, election manifestos are analyzed to assess how parties, especially the AfD, adjust their messaging in response to terrorism.

Methods

To establish causality, the study exploits a quasi-random variation in whether a terror attack was successful or failed. The authors compare election outcomes in municipalities that experienced successful attacks to those that experienced failed attacks, assuming that attack success is unrelated to underlying municipality characteristics. They conduct balance tests to confirm that municipalities targeted by successful and failed attacks are statistically similar in terms of demographics, socioeconomics, and prior political leanings.

A difference-in-differences approach is used, where the AfD’s vote share before and after an attack is compared across municipalities with successful versus failed attacks. Additionally, event studies test for pre-trends to ensure that any changes in AfD support are not driven by pre-existing differences between municipalities. The study also examines spillover effects on neighboring municipalities and explores mechanisms, such as voter mobilization, ideological shifts, and changes in political messaging.

Findings/Size Effects

The study finds strong evidence that successful terrorist attacks lead to increased support for the AfD, particularly in state elections. The key findings include:

• Electoral Impact: Successful terror attacks lead to a 4.5 percentage point increase in the AfD vote share in state elections, a 25% increase relative to the sample mean. This effect is not observed in Federal or European Parliament elections, suggesting that voters see state governments as more relevant for security policies.

• Voter Mobilization: Successful terror attacks increase voter turnout in state elections by 14 percentage points, with the AfD capturing 35% of the new votes. Other parties, such as the SPD, also experience a smaller but significant increase in vote share, but the CDU (the traditional center-right party) does not benefit.

• Geographic Spillovers: The AfD’s vote share increases in neighboring municipalities up to 75 kilometers away from an attack site, though the effect diminishes beyond that distance.

• Ideological Shifts: Individual-level data from the SOEP reveal that residents of municipalities hit by successful attacks shift their political identity further to the right. They are more likely to identify as hard-right and prefer the AfD, particularly those who were previously unaffiliated or aligned with the CDU, the Left Party, or far-right fringe parties.

• Concerns About Immigration: Successful attacks increase worries about immigration, but do not significantly change concerns about terrorism itself. This suggests that terrorism reinforces existing anxieties about migration rather than generating a general fear of violence.

• AfD Campaign Strategy: The AfD strategically responds to terrorism by increasing the use of rhetoric related to crime and immigration in its election manifestos. Other mainstream parties either downplay these issues or shift their messaging in the opposite direction.

  
  

Conclusion

This study provides compelling evidence that terrorism can have a significant impact on electoral outcomes in Western democracies by increasing support for right-wing populism. Unlike previous research that focuses on economic and cultural factors, this paper highlights the role of political conflict in shaping voter preferences. By exploiting quasi-random variation in attack success, the authors demonstrate that successful terror attacks not only mobilize voters but also shift political attitudes and reshape party strategies. The findings suggest that far-right parties can benefit from acts of violence, particularly when they align with their existing narratives on security and immigration. This underscores the broader implications of terrorism on democratic stability and electoral politics.