Highlighted Publications




 

Susanto and Harris (2026) examined how California’s prison population has changed in recent years and what those changes reveal about incarceration patterns by race, gender, age, offense type, and prison spending. They analyzed California Department of Corrections and Rehabilitation (CDCR) prison population data and California state budget data from 2010 through 2025. They found that California’s prison population fell to about 90,600 inmates in 2025, a 27% decline since 2019

Halpern-Meekin et al. (2026) ask how financial resources shape the emotional and relational rewards of motherhood among low-income mothers. They analyze semi-structured interviews with 80 mothers from the Baby’s First Years study; 40 received $333 per month and 40 received $20. They find that mothers used money not only for needs, but also to create meaningful moments of connection with children. The most common positive parenting experiences were spending time with children

Avdeev (2025) examines whether exposure to international students affects the long-term outcomes of native students. He uses administrative and survey data from the Netherlands covering about one million students over three decades. The study finds that a 10 percentage point increase in international student share raises natives’ likelihood of cohabiting with non-natives by 5.9%, marrying a non-native by 4.2%, and emigrating by 4.0%. It also increases pro-migration attitudes

Bloem, Hu, and Hurwitz (2026) ask how post-college earnings vary across colleges when using the full earnings distribution and how college selectivity relates to those outcomes. They analyze U.S. Department of Education College Scorecard data covering nearly all four-year colleges, including earnings percentiles 6, 8, and 10 years after entry. They find that rankings change substantially across percentiles, with about 40% of colleges shifting more than 150 places. Earnings ov

Mbekeani, Papay, Mantil, and Murnane (2026) examine how much high schools affect students’ long-term outcomes, including college enrollment, graduation, and earnings. They use longitudinal data from Massachusetts following five cohorts of ninth-grade students, combining administrative records and survey data. They find large differences across schools: students attending higher value-added schools are 11% more likely to enroll in college, 31% more likely to graduate from a fo

Chan and Chen (2025) examine how the productivity of nurse practitioners compares to physicians in emergency departments. They study 1.1 million patient visits from Veterans Health Administration emergency departments, using quasi-random assignment of patients to providers. They find that nurse practitioners use more resources, increasing length of stay by about 11 percent and costs by 7 percent. They also raise 30-day preventable hospitalizations by roughly 20 percent, with

Nelissen and De Witte (2026) examine whether raising the compulsory schooling age from 17 to 18 improves long-term educational and labor market outcomes. They use Dutch administrative microdata tracking individuals from adolescence into adulthood, exploiting a quasi-experimental reform. They find the policy reduced dropout by about 1.3 percentage points and increased high school completion by roughly 0.5 points, with stronger effects for vocational students. By age 31, employ

Singer (2026) examines whether the duration of remote learning in 2020–21 affected student attendance after the pandemic. He uses longitudinal administrative data on nearly one million Michigan students from 2017–18 through 2023–24, combined with district-level measures of remote learning duration. Using difference-in-differences and instrumental variables, he finds that each additional month of remote learning reduced post-pandemic attendance by about 0.46 percentage points.

Najam and Thompson (2026) examine whether adopting a four-day school week affects juvenile crime. They analyze incident-level crime data from the National Incident-Based Reporting System across six states, combined with longitudinal data on school schedule adoption from 2005–2019. Using a difference-in-differences design, they find that four-day school weeks increase juvenile crime by about 12%, driven by a 20% rise in property crime and a 9% rise in violent crime. They also

Bueno, Mawi, Page, and Smith (2026) examine how place-based scholarships affect student borrowing and early academic outcomes. They ask whether receiving the Achieve Atlanta scholarship changes loan use and first-semester performance. Using linked administrative data from Atlanta Public Schools, Achieve Atlanta, and Georgia’s public college systems, they compare recipients to similar non-recipients. They find recipients are 7 percentage points less likely to borrow (18% reduc

Bhai and Hughes (2026) ask whether individuals who enroll in Medicare Advantage at age 65 are systematically different, especially in health, from those who do not. They use administrative claims data (2007–2017) tracking commercially insured individuals transitioning into Medicare, leveraging the age-65 eligibility cutoff. They find strong advantageous selection: healthier individuals are more likely to enroll in Medicare Advantage. For example, having diabetes without compl

Burdick-Will and Stein (2026) ask how commute complexity, especially bus transfers, affects high school students’ attendance, school mobility, and academic performance. They analyze administrative data on all Baltimore City high school students in 2016–17 and 2017–18, exploiting a system-wide transit overhaul as a natural experiment. They find that total travel time has no meaningful effect on outcomes, but requiring a bus transfer increases absenteeism and school switching.

Persico (2026) asks whether prenatal exposure to industrial pollution causes worse long-term economic, educational, and health outcomes. She uses geocoded longitudinal data from the Children of the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY79), comparing siblings exposed in utero to pollution from nearby Toxic Release Inventory sites with unexposed siblings . She finds large negative effects: exposed children have about 23% lower wages, 0.76 fewer years of education, and ar

Aboaba et al. (2026) ask whether a low-cost messaging intervention can deter crime among high-risk parolees. They analyze data from a randomized controlled trial in New York, using administrative records on arrests, parole violations, and neighborhood crime. The authors find no meaningful reduction in arrests or violent crime. However, they report a 3 percentage point decline in parole violations—a 15% reduction—and a 2 percentage point decline in absconding violations, a 25%

Morgan et al. (2025) examine whether large, effectiveness-based financial incentives combined with improved hiring authority can attract and retain high-quality educators in low-performing schools. They analyze administrative data from the Dallas Independent School District, including student test scores, teacher evaluations, and staffing records. Using a difference-in-differences design, they find that the reform substantially increased teacher quality and student achievemen

Garthwaite et al. (2025) examine who benefits from the economic rents generated by college sports under amateurism. They ask how revenue from football and men’s basketball is redistributed within athletic departments. They analyze panel data on revenues and expenditures from Power Five athletic programs (2006–2019), along with player-level demographic data. They find substantial rent-sharing: about $0.31 of each additional dollar is reinvested in revenue sports, while roughly

Taylor (2025) examines whether placing foster children in family homes rather than congregate care improves long-term outcomes. He uses national administrative foster care data (2010–2015) linked to survey outcomes at age 21, and applies an instrumental variable based on exits from foster families. He finds that family placement substantially improves outcomes, increasing a combined index of employment, education, and reduced incarceration, homelessness, and substance abuse b

Kleinman (2026) studies whether making it easier to sign up for public benefits increases SNAP enrollment among older adults who already receive SSI. She uses American Community Survey data and compares states that adopted a simplified enrollment system to those that did not. Using a difference-in-differences approach, she finds that easier sign-up leads to higher participation. SNAP enrollment rises by about 8–10 percentage points, or roughly 17–24 percent above the starting

Molina and Rudik (2024) examine how much hurricane forecasts reduce damage and improve decision-making. They study all U.S. hurricanes making landfall from 2005–2022, combining detailed county-level data on forecasted and actual wind speeds, federal protective spending, recovery costs, and damages. They find forecasts strongly influence pre-storm spending and that underestimating wind speed significantly raises damages. For example, a 10 m/s underforecast increases county dam

Price and Song (2024) examine whether temporary cash assistance has long-term effects on adult earnings and children’s outcomes. They use data from the Seattle-Denver Income Maintenance Experiment, linked to Social Security administrative records over roughly 40 years. They find that adults who received cash assistance earned about $1,800 less annually (a 7.4% decline) and were 6.3 percentage points more likely to apply for disability benefits (about a 20% increase). These ef

Geruso and Spears (2026) ask whether persistently low global fertility is likely to continue and potentially lead to long-term population decline. They analyze United Nations fertility data, historical birth trends, and cohort fertility data from sources like the Human Fertility Database and Demographic and Health Surveys. They find that global fertility has fallen from about 4.85 in 1950 to roughly 2.25 today, with 67% of the world living below replacement levels. They show

Hofmann and Huang (2024) ask whether changes to Medicare Part D—specifically closing the coverage gap—affect drug prices and consumer behavior. They analyze detailed claims data from a 20% sample of Medicare beneficiaries from 2006–2018, covering about 1.9 billion prescription drug purchases. They find that closing the gap increased drug use, with beneficiaries 5 percentage points less likely to skip prescriptions. However, manufacturers responded by raising prices: highly ex

Clemens and Lewis (2025) ask whether restricting low-skill immigration through the H-2B visa lottery affects U.S. firms and domestic workers. They use survey data on 472 firms that either won or lost a randomized visa lottery in 2021–2022, combined with administrative petition data. They find that firms allowed to hire more H-2B workers increase revenue (elasticity about 0.20–0.22), investment (about 1.5–2.1), and profits (about 0.15). The elasticity of substitution between i

Adger, Ross, and Sloan (2025) examine whether field training officers (FTOs) influence police recruits’ later use of force. They study administrative data from the Dallas Police Department, linking 911 calls, force reports, and officer records from 2013–2019. Using quasi-random assignment of recruits to FTOs, they find that recruits trained by higher-force FTOs are significantly more likely to use force themselves. A one standard deviation increase in an FTO’s prior force pro