Highlighted Publications




 

Mayer, Méjean, and Thoenig (2026) examined whether credible threats of economic sanctions can deter war, using the Russia–Ukraine conflict as a case study. They combined international trade data from 1995–2021 with a quantitative model linking trade, diplomacy, and the probability of armed conflict. Their analysis found that Ukraine’s reduced economic dependence on Russia after 2014 lowered the economic costs of war and increased the predicted risk of conflict by more than 5

Sinaiko (2026) examines how contracts between health insurers and health care providers affect competition in health care markets. She asks whether contract provisions help insurers lower prices and improve competition or allow dominant provider systems to preserve market power. Drawing on evidence from prior studies, antitrust cases, insurer-provider contracts, and health care market data, she finds that selective contracting, tiered networks, and reference-based pricing can

Filippucci, Gal, and Schief (2026) examine how much generative artificial intelligence is likely to increase productivity across the U.S. economy and whether uneven gains across industries will reduce overall growth. They combine data on AI task exposure, industry employment patterns, AI adoption rates, and U.S. input-output tables covering 65 industries. They estimate that AI could increase aggregate total factor productivity growth by about 0.87 percentage points annually o

Young-Wolff et al. (2026) examined whether adolescent cannabis use is associated with an increased risk of developing psychotic, bipolar, depressive, and anxiety disorders by young adulthood. They analyzed data from 463,396 adolescents ages 13–17 who received routine cannabis-use screenings within Kaiser Permanente Northern California between 2016 and 2023 and followed them through age 25. They found that adolescents who reported cannabis use had substantially higher risks of